822
FXUS63 KEAX 302115
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Next round of snowfall moves in Monday morning and through the day.
  - Area of 2"-4"+ possible, mainly N of I-70
  - Amounts gradually taper off southward from I-70
  - All snow + light winds

* Cold temperatures continue
  - Mon lows: 10s to teens
  - Mon AM wind chills: single digits to low teens
  - Mon highs: 20s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Largely a quiet day across the area once the gusty NW winds died
down this morning. There was a couple/few hours of flurries for
areas around the KC metro and northward along the Missouri river as
an area of stratus dropped into the area. Temperatures within that
cloud layer were pretty squarely in the DGZ, allowing for some
dendrite production that was able to reach the ground. Nothing
substantial with high end being some very light accumulations in
parts of E/NE Kansas. Otherwise, by early this afternoon, large
surface high has developed and moved into the Plains, dominating
from the Canadian border and down toward the Gulf Coast. The system
responsible for the unpleasant weather Saturday now squarely over
the Great Lakes and into the New England areas. With the core of the
surface high in place, cold temperatures will continue, but
overnight lows will fortunately be limited with increasing cloud
cover helping insulate the area. Regardless, still cold with
overnight lows in the 10s to teens expected. Light winds mitigate
any real wind chill issues, only being a couple/few degrees colder
than air temps.

The next weather maker moves in overnight tonight and will bring
with it a fairly widespread area of snowfall. At this point in time,
the mid-upper level wave and PV anomaly are dropping down towards
the 4-Corners region and will begin to swing into the Plains
tonight. Model guidance remain unanimous in lack of any surface
reflection as this wave exits the Rockies, hampered by the expansive
surface/low level high pressure mentioned above. This leaves forcing
and moisture advection around and above 800mb with at least initial
snowfall areas ahead of the parent wave/PV anomaly. Hi-res guidance
too remains in good consensus of greatest snowfall areas
predominantly N of I-70 and towards the US-36 corridor and up
to/through the Iowa border. Much of this initial forcing will be
driving by ~700mb FGEN forcing, depicted well on various plan and
cross sections. Unlike some previous runs, there is little
indication of CSI potential, fortunately limiting risk for intense
and narrow banding. As the event progresses, deeper lift associated
with the wave/PV anomaly will approach the area and continue (even
expand areally to some degree) snowfall through the afternoon and
into the evening hours. There is some jet level support noted,
potentially even a weakly paired jet structure, but is difficult to
define how that may add to the situation, and will come back to this
in a minute.Temperature profiles continue to suggest much of area of
greatest lift will either be within the DGZ or within a couple
degrees, lending to efficient dendrite (higher SLR) production.
Though, some turbulence in that region (stronger winds) likely
yields at least some fracturing, mitigating higher/highest end SLR
scenarios. So... maybe 13-16:1 ratios prevail (which were used with
this package) vs something closer to 18-20:1. Either way, a
generally fluffy and easily movable snowfall. Fortunately light
surface winds limit issues in that regard as well.

Timing wise, recent hi-res runs have suggested a bit slower onset
for accumulating snowfall, more so after 13z-14z for KC Metro. That
tends to make sense given the ample dry air and top down saturating
that will have to occur prior. As forcing increases through the
morning, light to moderate snowfall should easily overspread far
eastern KS and western MO through the remainder of the morning and
reaching more easter areas by the early afternoon. Snowfall is
likely to be ongoing for at least the beginning of the evening
commute in the KC area, and especially so eastward across the
northern third to half of Missouri.

As for total amounts, not much change in expectation from previous
forecast package or two. A relatively broad area of 2"-4"+ remains
forecast from around I-70 northward through the Iowa border.
Greatest amounts remain largely depicted as you approach the US-36
corridor as well where widespread 3"-4"+ may prevail. Given limited
moisture (and moisture advection) probabilities remain quite tight
as well, with probabilities of 6" or greater <15%-20% on the most
recent Probabilistic Precipitation Portal output (which includes
this forecast package output). Will note though, the 18z HRRR run
has interestingly depicted a "double banded" look with a secondary
area of higher snowfall right down I-70. Difficult to discern
exactly what it is latching onto here, aside from jet streak support
or the weakly paired jet streaks noted above. But, something to
monitor given what has been advertised of late and current headline
locations. About headlines... have expanded advisory eastward
through the CWA, gradually angling ENE with the pivoting wave as
well as adding a row of counties on the southern end to account for
some uncertainty and the first accumulating snowfall in some cases.
Timing is also stepped across the area from west to east, as well as
ending. Impacts, by and large, should not be substantial with this
snowfall given the light winds, light and movable nature (less
melting/ice formation concern), and falling over a number of hours
vs very intense bands. Expect moderate visibility reductions,
especially snow kicked up from vehicles, and slick conditions where
snow does accumulate/stay on roadways. Give some extra time while
traveling, especially evening commutes around the area.

Quick peek into the week... chilly conditions generally linger with
lack of any substantial mid-level ridging and southerly surface
flow. A little moderation in temps, but not much more than the mid
to upper 30s or low 40s over southern areas and areas with little or
no snow. Snowpack areas will struggle to do much more than freezing.
Mid-week, cold front anticipated to drop through the area, plunging
temperatures colder at least briefly. Current depictions are a
mostly dry frontal passage, but with a notable Arctic air mass
trailing. Current forecast lows Thursday morning include single
digits below zero over northern Missouri to 10s above zero toward
KC metro and south and highs from the 10s to 20s. Fortunately short
lived as southerly winds return to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A low-key busy TAF period across the sites with this issuance.
An existing MVFR cloud deck across the sites has produce very
light flurries through the day, but are expected to continue to
gradually subside, so no mentions to start out TAFs. This deck
has shown some erosion on the edges, primarily in/around the
trio of KC Metro sites, so do have a period of VFR coming this
afternoon, before degradation back to MVFR and lower late in the
period. Have KSTJ predominantly MVFR through the period as it
is more within the current deck and there is little indication
of significant improvement coming. Otherwise, have -SN beginning
at all sites around 14z. While there is some confidence in IFR
visibilities resulting at all sites, only have that prevailing
at KSTJ with this issuance as confidence is greatest there.
Expect "downgrades" in subsequent issuances at the remaining
sites as confidence grows in timing and placement.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
     MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Monday for
     MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-038-039.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
     KSZ025-057-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis