627
FXUS63 KEAX 072324
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
524 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing drizzle with a light glaze of accumulation possible
  tonight into Saturday morning mainly along and north of
  Highway 36.

- Accumulating snow becoming increasingly likely for next week.

- Two rounds of snow chances: Monday evening into Tuesday
  morning, and Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

- A cold airmass will bring temperatures around 15-20 degrees
  below climatological average Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Synoptic Setup:

Satellite imagery depicts widespread stratus overspreading
Missouri and much of eastern Kansas this afternoon. Under
quasi-zonal flow aloft, an area of low pressure was shifting
through the Plains.

Drizzle and Freezing Drizzle Tonight:

The main story tonight will be the widespread drizzle and
freezing drizzle potential, though uncertainty in the spatial
delineation remains. Models agree in the presence of high 0-1 km
RH coinciding with upward omega, no cloud ice, and IFR ceilings;
hence a good drizzle signal. They vary more significantly,
however, with overnight temperatures and the location of the
freezing line. Some guidance keeps freezing temperatures
confined to near the MO/IA border, while the farthest south
guidance dips them into central Missouri. Have nudged the
forecast to an in-between solution, with the freezing line just
north of the Kansas City metro. Thus, the potential for a light
glaze of ice is highest generally along and north of the Highway
36 corridor. The lack of confidence in the temperature forecast
has precluded the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory at this
time. The drizzle is expected to be the most widespread from
06-12Z before a drier airmass and decreasing lift push through
the area. Low stratus building down to the surface may also
contribute to fog/lower visibilities during this period. Dry
conditions are expected by the afternoon, lasting through at
least Monday morning.

Snow Potential Monday/Tuesday:

Ensemble guidance continues to depict snowfall potential Monday
into Tuesday across the region. There have not been major
changes in the forecast with the latest ensemble suite, though
things have trended a bit earlier. A shortwave trough is
progged to swing through the Plains Monday afternoon with an
attendant surface front diving southeast through northern
Missouri. Precipitation chances increase Monday evening. With
temperatures forecast to drop below freezing by the evening,
snow is the expected precip type.

Latest NBM 48-hr Snowfall Probabilities Ending Tue PM:
Probability of >= 1": 40-70% (highest N and W of KC)
Probability of >= 2": 30-50% (highest N and W of KC)
Probability of >= 4": 10-20% (highest N and W of KC)

The probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index depicts 40-70%
chances of at least minor impacts with this system, and 10-30%
chances of moderate impacts.

Snow Potential Late Tuesday/Wednesday:

Shortly on the heels of the previous system, ensemble guidance
depicts another (and deeper) trough digging through the region,
bringing additional snow chances to the forecast area late
Tuesday through Wednesday. With sub-freezing temperatures
areawide, all snow is the expected precip type once again.
Notably, there remain both timing and magnitude differences in
the synoptic forcing within the ensemble guidance, which will
influence the location of greatest snowfall totals and whether
or not they overlap with snow from the previous system. Ultimately,
we will likely continue to see the guidance wobble in the
coming days as the system is currently offshore.

Latest NBM 48-hr Snowfall Probabilities Ending Thu AM:
Probability of >= 2": 60-80% (lowest over the southern CWA)
Probability of >= 4": 40-60% (lowest over the southern and eastern CWA)
Probability of >= 6": 20-40% (lowest over the southern and eastern CWA)

Cold Temperatures Mid-Week:
In addition to the snow chances, the synoptic pattern will bring
a cold airmass to the region Tuesday through Thursday next week.
NBM percentile data support highs struggling to get above the
freezing mark for most of the area each day, with Wednesday
likely being the coldest day of the week. Overnight lows are
progged to fall into the single digits and teens, with winds
pushing wind chills into the single digits above and below zero
through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Conditions will deteriorate through the evening and overnight as
low ceilings and drizzle develop. Going forecast trends looked
good with low MVFR ceilings developing near midnight and IFR
ceilings developing late tonight. Conditions start to improve
late tomorrow morning to near noon with northwest winds
increasing and becoming gusty with winds in the 20-25 kts range
likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Saturday for KSZ102.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...CDB