841
FXUS63 KEAX 170346
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1046 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through at least
  Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow late afternoon
  into Saturday as a cold front slowly moves into and through
  the region. A few storms could be strong with strong wind
  gusts and small hail.

- Much cooler temperatures arrive Saturday night behind the cold
  front. High temperatures for Sunday should be in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Relatively high amplitude mid/upper ridging remains over the
region between a closed mid level low and troughing across the
Rockies and into the high plains and another off the coast of
the Mid Atlantic/New England. Meanwhile, a surface low is
currently over the ND/SD border and another across eastern
Colorado, with a warm front analyzed extending from the surface
low across the Dakotas through central Iowa and into far NE
Missouri. This has allowed for well above normal temperatures to
continue, with 3 PM temp in the low to mid 80s, as well as
slightly increased southerly surface winds with gusts up to 25
mph. Gusts should relax by late afternoon, along with upper
level clouds overspreading the region from the southwest by
late afternoon. Warm conditions will continue through tonight,
with overnight lows in the mid 60s for most locations.

As we head into tomorrow, the closed mid/upper low currently
over Wyoming is progged to move northeast into far western
Ontario, with the trough axis extending to the southwest into
the Central Plains. This will push the cold front to the
southeast, with it progged to be knocking on the doorstep of far
NW Missouri by early afternoon. The frontal progression looks to
be relatively slow, with it gradually pushing into the CWA from
NW to SE through the afternoon and evening hours of Friday.
Due to the slow progression of the front, another hot day is
expected tomorrow, with highs once again in the mid 80s for most
locations. By tomorrow evening, the front should be draped
across NW Missouri into NE Kansas, with a 45 to 50 knot WSW
oriented 500 mb jet overspreading this same region. This will
provide adequate deep layer wind shear to allow for better
organized updrafts. However, per the SPC HREF, instability will
be higher across Wichita and Topeka`s CWAs, with only a corridor
of roughly 500 J/kg of ML CAPE extending into our region. Also,
lapse rates are pretty uninspiring. That being said, SPC has
maintained the marginal risk for severe storms for tomorrow
evening into late tomorrow night for our area. Otherwise,
scattered showers and storms are likely along the front tomorrow
evening and into the overnight period. A couple storms could
perhaps get modestly feisty, with some gusty winds and hail
approaching severe criteria. The front will likely stall out
somewhere in the vicinity of Kirksville to Kansas City by early
Saturday morning. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move
out of the Desert Southwest and into Texas/Oklahoma Saturday
morning/afternoon along with another shortwave embedded within
the northwesterly flow descending out of the northern High
Plains and into the Central Plains. This will finally provide
the dynamics needed to kick the front completely through the
region by Saturday afternoon and evening. Depending on the exact
progression of the front, it is possible that a few strong
storms may be possible Saturday afternoon in the Sedalia to
Boonville area before quickly exiting to the east.

Much cooler, drier air will move in behind the front by Saturday
evening/night, with overnight lows in the mid 40s.
Northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of the mid/upper
trough continues on Sunday, with forecast highs only in the mid
60s. Warmer and more humid air quickly returns on Monday out
ahead of yet another shortwave approaching from the northwest,
with highs rebounding into the mid to upper 70s. The shortwave
should move through, pushing a cold front through the region by
Monday evening/night. This will provide low end (20 percent)
chances for some showers, and will bring cooler temperatures
once more, with highs in the 60s likely for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for most of the TAF period. Winds
around 10-12 kts will remain out of the south through the
overnight and then pick up to around 20-22 kts as diurnal mixing
increases late tomorrow morning. Winds weaken late tomorrow
evening as diurnal mixing diminishes. A few showers and storms
possible late tomorrow evening into the night out ahead of cold
front moving through the area. For now, left showers in a
PROB30 group due to low confidence on timing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Collier