081
FXUS63 KEAX 042258
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
458 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures on Thursday with wind chill values in the
  single digits below zero north of Highway 136.

- Warming trend through the weekend with high temperatures of
  10-15F degrees above normal Sunday.

- Potentially unsettled weather late Sunday into early Tuesday
  with best precipitation chances (20-30%) in east central
  Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

West to northwesterly winds have increased throughout the day
as a weaker front moved through the area this morning with wind
gusts generally of 25 MPH. Winds will continue to increase
through the early evening through midnight with wind gust up to
40 MPH in far northeastern Missouri. Expect the significant
cold air to move through the area later this evening into
midnight with the cold front. From the satellite imagery at 3
PM can see the cloud cover just pushing near the MO and IA
border. Temperatures will quickly drop into the teens and 20s by
midnight. Wind will increase, particularly across far
northeastern MO with wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH peaking around
midnight while other areas of gust 20-25 MPH. While winds will
decrease through the early morning hours on Thursday, this will
still have 15-25 mph (strongest in northeast MO) which will
allow for below zero wind chill temperatures generally north of
Highway 136. Single digit above zero wind chill temperatures
are expected further south.

The cold air mass will slide further east and will allow for
winds to shift from the south-southwest. This will allow for
a gradual warming trend as we get the warm air advection. While
temperatures on Friday morning will have lows in the low to
upper teens, with warmest temperature in the greater KC metro
area, the high temperatures will reach up to the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Strong warm advection continues through the weekend
as with potentials for Sunday to reach upper 50s with potential
for near 60F degrees. While there is great chance of 40-60%
chance parts of eastern KS reaching above 60F degrees and
10-20% chance across the greater KC metro area. Still these are
temperatures 10-15F degrees above seasonal normals but not
anticipating record temperatures.

As we look into the next potential for precipitation it may
have a potential on late Sunday through early Tuesday. With the
warmer temperatures the previous forecast suggested mainly rain
with potentially a wintry mix overnight Monday into Tuesday.
The latest LREF shows minimal for measurable precipitation and
the NBM starting to align a bit with 20-30% which increased from
the previous model run, but has shifted further east across
central Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A few high clouds will pass overhead but conditions will remain
VFR for the TAF period. Stronger pressure gradient will maintain
gusty winds generally out of the north and northwest through
about 12z before the surface high pressure slides in and works
to weaken the winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MK
AVIATION...Krull