766
FXUS63 KEAX 191132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills continue through
  Tuesday.

- Monday night/Tuesday morning is likely to feature
  temperatures below zero with wind chills as cold as 15 below
  zero.

- Temperatures are likely to rebound to near seasonal normals by
  Wednesday, with highs in the 40s possible by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

With a 498 dam H5 low centered in the vicinity of Hudson Bay and
associated longwave troughing digging as far south as the lower
Mississippi Valley, very cold temperatures are in place across
the region this morning, ranging from as cold as 6 degrees in
Kirksville to as warm as 14 degrees in Harrisonville. Thanks to
a relatively tightened pressure gradient due to a 1040 mb
surface high over the central High Plains and a 1000 mb surface
low over the Carolinas, breezy northwesterly winds continue this
morning, which has wind chills ranging from 1 to 10 below zero.
Very cold temperatures will persist into the afternoon, with
high temperatures running roughly 25 degrees below normal.
Additionally, breezy NW winds should also continue into the
afternoon hours. The surface high over the central high plains
will gradually shift eastward today, becoming centered over
eastern Kansas by this evening, which will finally relax winds
to 5 mph or less. With mostly clear skies and light winds,
temperatures tonight/Monday morning should be colder than those
of this morning, with lows potentially slightly below zero
across northern Missouri with low to mid single digits
elsewhere.

On Monday, a couple of additional impulses (with attendant vort
maxes) pivoting around the western side of the synoptic scale
longwave upper trough descend out of Canada, with one coming
into the Upper Midwest and another coming across the Pacific
Northwest and digging into the Desert Southwest. This may
develop an area of snow across Kansas on Monday morning and
afternoon. It is possible that some flurries could make it as
far east as our CWA, but for now we have kept the forecast dry.
Otherwise, these impulses will just bring another reinforcing
shot of Arctic air, resulting in the coldest temperatures of the
season Monday night into Tuesday morning. At this time, the low
temperatures are forecast to range from as cold as negative 7
degrees across northern MO to as warm as zero degrees toward
the Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, wind chills will once again be
below zero, with as cold as 15 below zero toward the Iowa
border.

Well below normal temperatures continue into Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night, but temperatures should moderate and rebound
back toward seasonal normals by Wednesday. Models suggest
a shortwave trough traversing from Montana into the central
CONUS by Wednesday night, sending another cold front through the
region late Wednesday night, knocking temperatures down several
degrees again for Thursday. Temperatures should warm back up
toward seasonal normals again by Friday, with high temperatures
in the 40s possible by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Gusts
have relaxed, but NW winds on the order of 12 knots or so should
persist through the morning and afternoon hours, with winds
becoming light and variable by this evening as high pressure
moves overhead.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW