308
FXUS63 KEAX 101802
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
102 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms early this morning. Main hazards are
  damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and flooding.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight
  into Monday morning. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will
  be possible once again.

- Rain chances continue through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A mature MCS with a well-defined bowing segment is marching
eastward through northeast Kansas, riding along a stationary
front oriented SW to NE from central Kansas towards the MN River
Valley. The favorability of the environment for this complex to
sustain through northwest Missouri in the short term (1-3
hours) seems to be diminishing, though with 3000-4000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, PW values in excess of 2", and 25-35 kts of bulk shear
there is still a chance for some isolated damaging wind gusts up
to 50-65 mph if updrafts can get deeply rooted. The more
notable concern for this morning MCS is heavy rainfall and
flooding, with efficient rainfall rates 1-3" being observed with
the leading line of this segment.

PoPs decrease through the morning as the MCS marches east and
coverage begins decreasing, before another round of rainfall is
expected with another convective complex this evening and
overnight into Monday morning. The front will slowly nudge
further and further south, acting as a focal point for
additional rainfall in another thermodynamically rich
environment.

However, certainty and predictability in how this evening and
overnight round plays out is quite low. There are several
mesoscale factors that could make or break how this evening
unfolds, so the next 12 hours will determine when/if and where
the next system develops, and how intense it can get. Model
guidance is all over the place, but overall consensus from the
more reliable CAMs push the front and theta-e gradient further
south. This moves the best chances for most robust convective
development further south, especially south of I-70. For this
reason, the Flood Watch has been expanded in area to include the
remainder of the forecast area. HREF LPMMs suggest another
localized 2-4" could be possible in spots overnight, leading to
additional flooding concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Convection has exited the TAF terminals to the east, with the
terminals likely to remain dry at least through the afternoon
and evening hours. Meanwhile, VFR conditions should persist. A
mesoscale convective system may develop late tonight, primarily
south of the KC metro terminals, but it is possible that the
northern extend could impact them. Thus, have a PROB30 group
for -SHRA between 5z and 9z Monday morning for the KC metro
terminals. Another window for showers and perhaps some storms
looks to be between 12z and 15z Monday morning as an MCS may
move eastward out of Kansas. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs are likely to
develop by around 12z Monday morning at the terminals. Winds
have turned northwesterly as of 18z this afternoon, but should
eventually turn back to southerly and eventually become light
and variable by tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ028-029-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Camden WFO SGF
AVIATION...BMW