869
ACUS03 KWNS 081930
SWODY3
SPC AC 081929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
and evening on Thursday.

...KS/NE/SD/IA...
A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday
should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A
separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across
southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest.
This should yield an effective split flow regime over the
northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night.

Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday
morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization
from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe
potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak
diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills
vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be
pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the
decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of
attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be
sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed
severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday
evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO
Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The
spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather
uncertain.

...ND and northwest MN...
Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest
Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the
latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support
organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing
into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may
congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night.
Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible.

...East...
A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of
moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb
winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the
Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage
is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary
layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet
microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected
hazard in this regime.

Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent.
But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells
and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging
winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be
monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk.

..Grams.. 07/08/2025

$$