563
ACUS03 KWNS 180729
SWODY3
SPC AC 180728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper trough over the Northeast US is expected to mature and
transition into a closed low as a powerful mid-level jet streak
ejects over the Northeast Monday. A second strong trough will also
intensify over the Upper Midwest, deepening a broad surface cyclone
across the Great Lakes. To the east, a secondary surface cyclone
will develop over the western St. Lawrence Valley at the apex of the
surging cold front before merging with the broader low farther west.
As the lows deepen and the front moves quickly eastward across the
Atlantic Coast and across FL, southerly winds will transport a
modestly moist air mass (low 50s F surface dewpoints) northward
across southern New England.

One or two damaging gusts remain possible ahead of the rapidly
moving cold front over parts of southern New England early Monday.
Confined to a narrow warm sector with modest moisture but strong
low-level winds, a shallow convective band along the front may be
capable of sporadic damaging gusts before the front moves offshore
by early afternoon. The primary limiting factor remains the degree
of destabilization ahead of the shallow convective band. Current
guidance shows little insatiability and poor lapse rates suggesting
very limited severe potential.

..Lyons.. 10/18/2025

$$