401
ACUS03 KWNS 280705
SWODY3
SPC AC 280704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not likely on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted and weakening upper trough will continue to
linger in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Monday. Similar
to previous days, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will still be
present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface
pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. A stronger
upper-level trough will move eastward into the upper Great Lakes
region. A relatively sharp cold front will be attendant to this
upper-level system and bring cooler and much drier conditions into
much of the Plains.

A few thunderstorms are possible in association with the weakening
trough in eastern parts of the Carolinas. Weak lapse rates aloft and
overall nebulous forcing will continue to limit severe potential
with any storms that do develop. Farther west, thunderstorms are
much less likely as warm air at mid/upper levels will keep
convection too shallow for charge separation. Heating of a moist
airmass and lift from the sea breeze boundaries will promote
thunderstorms in the Florida Peninsula. Much weaker flow aloft will
greatly limit storm organization, however.

..Wendt.. 09/28/2024

$$