042
ACUS03 KWNS 161924
SWODY3
SPC AC 161923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...

An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the
southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only
modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period.
Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread
the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and
spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward
from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front
extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY
will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early
Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is
expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result
in moderate to strong destabilization.

Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear
if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into
portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the
surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and
east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime.
Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably
sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany
risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this
activity.

During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is
possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north
across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail,
or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop
with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO.

...Deep South to GA/SC Coast...

Enhanced west/northwest flow  aloft will overspread the region on
Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the
afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place
amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but
any storms that develop could become strong/severe.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

$$