897
ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern and central High Plains on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the
Southwest into western Canada early Friday morning, with upper
troughing anticipated east of this ridging across the central and
eastern CONUS. This overall upper pattern is forecast to remain in
place across the CONUS throughout the period.

Surface pattern early Friday will be dominated by a strong high over
the OH Valley, with a weak stationary front along its southern
periphery stretching from SC into the TX Hill Country. Warm and
moist conditions are expected along this boundary, and thunderstorm
development is anticipated during the afternoon amid modest
low-level convergence. Storm severity should be mitigated by weak
shear and largely disorganized storm mode.

At least modest low-level moisture will likely be in place along and
east of the surface lee troughing anticipated across the High
Plains. This moisture will enable airmass destabilization in the
vicinity of the lee trough, despite warm low/mid-level temperatures.
Low-level convergence is expected along the lee trough, with some
additional ascent potentially provided by a low-amplitude shortwave
trough currently expected to move through the northwesterly flow
aloft over the northern High Plains. Combination of these factors
may result in thunderstorm development within the moderately buoyant
and sheared airmass, suggesting some updraft organization is
possible. An outflow-dominant storm character is likely, with
damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. Some isolated large hail
is possible within any more cellular development.

..Mosier.. 07/17/2024

$$