897
ACUS03 KWNS 060730
SWODY3
SPC AC 060729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to
severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper
ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough
meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface
troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East
Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate
instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions
of the central and eastern CONUS.

...Carolinas into southern New England...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface
trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should
approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000
J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates).
Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical
wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are
likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and
isolated damaging gust potential.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough,
and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the
afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly
upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley
region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the
evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm
into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level
lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak
around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear
(i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The
stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an
instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one
or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may
be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if
confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing
of the MCS can be better ascertained.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025

$$