206
ACUS03 KWNS 181930
SWODY3
SPC AC 181929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the
lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging
wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern
Missouri into far western Illinois.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt
shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX
Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will
be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across
KS/MO/IA/IL.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA,
with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward
across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day.

As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across
far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible.
Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg.

Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles
will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado
potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS
type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a
region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across
far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into
western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated
tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening,
supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on
instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2025

$$