578
ACUS03 KWNS 100714
SWODY3
SPC AC 100713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, but
the severe thunderstorm potential is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Enhanced westerly flow aloft is forecast to extend from the Canadian
Prairies eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the
Northeast, through the base of upper troughing covering much of
eastern Canada. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to
progress through these westerlies, including one that moves quickly
northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes into the northern
Atlantic and another that is expected to move across the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes early Sunday morning. This overall
evolution will contribute to deepening cyclonic flow across much of
the central and eastern CONUS, while also reinforcing the
continental airmass over the region.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend across the OH
Valley into the central Plains. This boundary is expected to sharpen
throughout the day as the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave
trough progresses southeastward. Surface cyclogenesis appears likely
in the northern MO/IL vicinity, with the resultant low then moving
northeastward along the frontal zone across the OH Valley. Warm-air
advection throughout the warm sector of this low combined with
cooling mid-level temperatures will result in modest buoyancy.
Warm-air advection will also combine with large-scale ascent to
provide the lift needed for showers and thunderstorms. Mid-level
flow will be strong enough to support updraft rotation and the
potential for a few instances of hail. However, coverage will be
minimized by limited buoyancy.

..Mosier.. 10/10/2024

$$