142
ACUS03 KWNS 110714
SWODY3
SPC AC 110713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late
Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday
with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge
over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over
the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave.
West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High
Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly
winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this
pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing.

Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by
late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near
the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with
over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few
cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An
increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also
yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well.

..Jewell.. 08/11/2025

$$