247
ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginally
severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern
Appalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
A mid-level trough will move slowly eastward across the central U.S.
on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances eastward across the
central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. Along and ahead of
the front, a large MCS will be ongoing at the start of the period.
This MCS will move eastward during the day. Ahead of the MCS,
warming surface temperatures across a very moist airmass, and
moderate deep-layer shear, will be favorable for isolated severe
storms. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon in the central Gulf
Coast states near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots.  In
addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen during the
day. This should be favorable for isolated severe storms. Supercell
development will be possible along or ahead of the line, mainly in
areas where instability becomes the strongest. Bowing line segments
will also be possible within the line itself. The primary threat is
expected to be wind damage, but an isolated tornado threat will also
be possible. The greatest severe potential appears likely to shift
eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into Georgia and the
eastern Florida Panhandle by early evening.

...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
At the start of the period, a cold front is forecast to be located
from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. The
northern end of a large MCS will likely be ongoing, with this
convection moving eastward across the southern and central
Appalachians during the day. Ahead of the MCS, weak instability is
expected to develop. Forecast soundings ahead of the front have
MLCAPE peaking in the 250 to 500 J/kg range by afternoon. In
addition, a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak is forecast to move
across the Ohio Valley. This feature will create strong deep-layer
shear profiles, favorable for an isolated severe threat. As
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen ahead of the front, an
isolated wind-damage threat should develop. This threat may persist
through the afternoon, as a broken line of storms moves eastward
into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2025

$$