793
ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with a threat mainly for damaging winds are possible
over parts of the Ohio Valley and Appalachians Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong neutral to slightly negative tilt upper trough over the OH
Valley and Great Lakes is forecast to continue intensifying as it
moves quickly eastward Sunday. At the base of the trough, a 90+ kt
jet streak will lift northward into the upper OH Valley and
Northeast deepening a surface low over the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada. Strong southerly winds ahead of the low will support a
modestly moist air mass from eastern OH/KY into western PA and WV. A
cold front expected to move eastward with the low will serve as a
focus for thunderstorm potential Sunday morning through Sunday
evening.

...OH Valley and Appalachians...
A squall line is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
from central/eastern OH into northern KY ahead of the front and
deepening surface low. Strong ascent from the trough/jet streak
should maintain this shallow convective line into portions of PA/WV
by early afternoon. With upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints and only
modest heating, buoyancy appears limited. However, the strong flow
aloft should still support a risk for damaging gusts. Backed flow
ahead of the surface low will favor large low-level shear which
could support embedded rotation with the potential for a brief
tornado or two. Storms will gradually weaken with eastward extent as
available buoyancy wanes into the evening.

...Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast...
At the start of the period, a few storms may be ongoing along the
front as it continues east/southeastward across southern MS/AL and
western FL. With marginal buoyancy and on the southern fringes of
the stronger flow aloft, a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled
out, but convection should weaken through the morning before moving
offshore.

The cold front will continues eastward through the remainder of the
day with remnant showers and cloud cover likely ahead of it. Still,
some heating and destabilization is possible across the Southeast
and southern Appalachians. However, weak subsidence is expected over
much of the region as the primary upper trough and jet streak begin
to lift away to the north. This currently suggests limited
redevelopment will occur along the front Sunday afternoon, though
there remains substantial uncertainty. While isolated storms cannot
be ruled out, confidence remains too low for severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

$$