829
ACUS03 KWNS 300733
SWODY3
SPC AC 300732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains...
On Tuesday, further amplification will occur with the
eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains,
with preceding height falls and a strengthening of
west-southwesterly winds aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing Tuesday morning across Iowa and nearby parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris
will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the
most-favorable surface-based storm environment later in the day. The
strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently
expected across Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northern Missouri,
with moderate destabilization also expected southwestward near the
surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold
front across Kansas.

Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and
sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards,
especially across parts of Iowa and nearby far southeast Nebraska
and far northern Missouri, where somewhat higher severe
probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks. Storms are likely
to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe
potential as storms progress east-southeastward across the region.

A few strong to locally severe high-based storms may occur as far
southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and
deeply mixed boundary layer and/or in the post-frontal environment
across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas.

...Southeast/Gulf Coast...
Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a
moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening
southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained
severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by
the influence of the upper ridge and weak deep-layer shear.

..Guyer.. 06/30/2024

$$