


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
477 ACUS02 KWNS 111730 SWODY2 SPC AC 111729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the upper MS Valley, while a separate weaker system drifts east across the central to southern Plains. Meanwhile, weak ridging will remain over the Southeast, with a stronger upper high over southern CA. At the surface, low pressure will move across Lower MI, with drying across the upper MS Valley as winds veer. A diffuse boundary will extend southwestward into parts of MO, KS, and OK, providing a focus for storms. ...Great Lakes Region... Strong heating will occur ahead of a cold front, with upper 60s F dewpoints over IN, OH, and much of Lower MI. Little cooling aloft is forecast with the glancing upper wave, but MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. Convergence within the surface trough will lead to scattered storms along the wind shift, with a few severe gusts and marginal hail possible. Low-level shear will be strongest over northern Lower MI, and an isolated supercell cannot be ruled out. Some uncertainty exist regarding overall storm coverage, as midlevel subsidence moves in late in the day. ...OH/Mid MS Valleys to the southern Plains... Ongoing storms with outflow may exist from parts of the South Plains into OK Saturday morning. Any associated boundaries may provide a focus for redevelopment during the afternoon, as 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE develops. Aside from that, moist easterly low-level flow through a deep layer will be favorable for thunderstorms across almost all of Southwest TX, including the Big Bend area. While shear will be weak, lightly veering winds with height along with steep lapse rates and strong instability should lead to a few robust, slow-moving storms with localized damaging hail and downburst potential. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 $$