874
ACUS02 KWNS 081718
SWODY2
SPC AC 081717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to
early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware
Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts
are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to
mid-evening.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States...
A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the
central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level
anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level
southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing
with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the
southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the
adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream
will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an
extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized
clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more
favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging
winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by
the 12Z HREF max wind speed field.

...Northern Great Plains...
Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north
from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that
isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along
a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will
gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme
buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by
peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to
the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support
adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe
hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated
downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk
for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night.

...Interior Northwest...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into
the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level
southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow
regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid
in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to
southern/central/eastern MT.

...Lower MI...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are
possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon,
supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy.

..Grams.. 07/08/2025

$$