656
ACUS02 KWNS 060601
SWODY2
SPC AC 060559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of
northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Northern Florida/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley on Monday, with southwest flow located over
eastern parts of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. An MCS will
likely be ongoing near the front early in the day from the western
Florida Panhandle northeastward into western Georgia. Ahead of the
MCS, a very moist airmass is forecast with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Warming surface temperatures across this
moist airmass will increase instability, with MLCAPE likely reaching
1000 to 1200 J/kg by midday. This will help to maintain convective
development within the MCS.

In addition, a mid-level jet will move northeastward across the
Southeast on Monday. The right entrance region of this feature will
overspread the moist sector. In response, model forecasts suggest
that a rather focused 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will develop
across northern Florida and southern Georgia from late morning into
the early afternoon. Near this low-level jet, 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range.
This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, should support an
isolated tornado threat with any supercell that can develop.
Supercells and organized bowing structures may also produce isolated
severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to decrease by
early evening, as instability weakens across the moist airmass, and
as the stronger flow shifts northeastward into the western Atlantic.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2025

$$