Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
852 ACUS02 KWNS 281645 SWODY2 SPC AC 281643 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024 $$