372
ACUS02 KWNS 161725
SWODY2
SPC AC 161724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible across the southern
Plains on Saturday. Additional severe storms are possible across the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes toward the TN
Valley/southern Appalachians will develop east through the period,
moving mostly offshore the Atlantic coast Saturday night/early
Sunday morning. Further west, an upper trough will dig across the
western U.S., while an upper ridge builds over the Plains. A
shortwave impulse over the southern Rockies is expected to move
through the upper ridge over the southern Plains. Enhanced
west/southwesterly flow associated with the southern Plains impulse
and the larger-scale trough over the East will persist through much
of the period.

At the surface, a cold front will move across much of the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. The southwest extent of
this boundary will lift northward across OK and parts of the Ozark
Plateau. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across portions
of western OK/TX.

... Southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley Vicinity...

Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the warm sector
east of the dryline and south of the northward retreating warm front
from OK/TX into AR/LA. More modest dewpoints in the low 60s F should
spread into southern KS/MO during the evening/overnight hours as
well. While capping will initially be in place, continued warm
advection and increasing ascent from the midlevel shortwave impulse
ejecting from the southern Rockies should overcome the EML across
north TX into southern OK. Supercell wind profiles with
elongated/straight hodographs and very steep midlevel lapse rates
suggest splitting supercells producing large to very large hail will
be possible. With time, clustering may result in an eastward
progressing MCS moving across the ArkLaTex vicinity during the
evening.

Overnight, additional convection may develop within the warm frontal
zone from northwest OK/southern KS into southwest MO/northwest AR.
This activity may remain elevated to the north of the warm front.
Nevertheless, vertical shear and thermodynamic conditions will be
favorable for large hail. Some upscale growth may occur with
clusters developing eastward within the baroclinic zone. If this
occurs, some increase in strong wind potential could also occur.

More isolated/conditional risk will extend southwestward along the
surface dryline across west-central/southwest TX toward the Middle
Rio Grande Valley/Del Rio vicinity. Any storms that develop in this
area, or cross the border will pose a risk for large hail and strong
gusts.

...Northeast...

Modest boundary layer moisture is expected across the region.
Cooling aloft will aid in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the surface
cold front. Elongated/straight hodographs and greater than 30 kt
effective shear suggest scattered convection may produce hail up to
1.5 inch diameter in the strongest cells. Steepened low-level lapse
rates also may support sporadic strong gusts, especially if any
clustering/linear segments develop.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...

Outflow from overnight storms is expected to move across the eastern
Carolinas and the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the morning. Some
airmass recovery is possible ahead of the eastward advancing cold
front expected to move through later in the afternoon/evening.
However, subsidence and drying aloft may inhibit redevelopment.
Stronger midlevel flow is also expected to weaken through the day.
Overall, severe potential appear low across the Chesapeake with a
more uncertain/conditional risk across the eastern Carolinas. If
storms can develop over eastern NC/SC, some risk for gusty winds and
hail is possible.

...Deep South...

Large scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region. However,
the composite cold front and outflow from earlier convection will
sag southward through peak heating. A very moist airmass will be in
place, but midlevel lapse rates will be modest, resulting in MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt
will support organized convection capable of hail and strong gusts
should any storms develop and become sustained.

...Northern UT into southwest WY...

As the western upper trough digs south/southeast across the Great
Basin, rapid cooling aloft will result in weak destabilization and
numerous storms. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the
potential for severe wind gusts from the stronger cores.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

$$