565
ACUS02 KWNS 120513
SWODY2
SPC AC 120512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN
GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida
Panhandle on Thursday.

...Southeast...

An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore
the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the
mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused
over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb
will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile,
elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool
temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE
values to around 750-1200 J/kg.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the
mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface
boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm
coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing
Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to
propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will
develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few
organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will
be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was
give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL
Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast.
However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm
cover precludes higher probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2025

$$