


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
100 ACUS02 KWNS 161641 SWODY2 SPC AC 161639 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move northeast out of the northern Plains Friday, with a positive-tilt trough extending southwestward across the central Plains and into the Southwest. This trough will move slowly eastward through the period, with a belt of southwest midlevel winds increasing to 50 kt by Saturday morning over MO, KS and northern OK. At the surface, a trough/wind shift will extend roughly from western WI into central KS at 00Z, with 50s F dewpoints along and ahead of it. Daytime heating near the boundary will yield 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with deep-layer effective shear near 35 kt at 00Z. Convergence near the boundary should support scattered thunderstorms late in the day within the narrow uncapped zone from northwest OK across KS and into northern MO/IA. Forecast soundings depict poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit storm coverage and severity. But marginal hail or gusts may occur with the strongest cells. ..Jewell.. 10/16/2025 $$