616
ACUS02 KWNS 051733
SWODY2
SPC AC 051731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and
Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east
on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic
coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60
kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will
develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH
to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F
dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio
Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap
modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front.

Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly
deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the
cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly
increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide
sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado
or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells
that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress
east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely
with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail
also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode
will be more favorable.

While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be
somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a
Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2024

$$