019
ACUS02 KWNS 280607
SWODY2
SPC AC 280605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma
into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to
very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe
gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur.

...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid
Mississippi Valleys...
As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level
short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second
half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal
wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area
into northern Missouri/southern Iowa.  This will allow a cold front
to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the
overnight period.

While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day,
suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in
forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm
development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern
Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of
the period.

Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will
allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by
veering/increasing flow with height.  A few supercells are expected
to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk.
Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out through the end of the period.

...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas...
A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma
southwestward into central Texas through the period.  With only weak
large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas
late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm
development in most if not all areas.  The NAM (both deterministic
and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it
continues to indicate no convective development.  Meanwhile, the GFS
is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development --
extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and
southwestward to the Edwards Plateau.  Meanwhile,  in between these
two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period
development over the Concho Valley vicinity.

The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain
isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after
dark.  With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is
evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong
CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly
flow aloft.  Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to
cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a
strong gust with any storm that could develop.

..Goss.. 03/28/2025

$$