015
ACUS02 KWNS 060549
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow
(Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong
to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New
York into Maine.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper
troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow
(Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains
and New England, which will encourage at least scattered
thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains,
strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in
place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern
Appalachians.

...Northern Appalachians...
By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the
70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the
deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft
will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area,
supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs.
Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable
of producing isolated damaging gusts.

...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains...
Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level
moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through
the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon
peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly
low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting
in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear.
The more robust storms that develop should be initially
supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance
or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several
storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough
from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening,
with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS
may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence
the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as
far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may
produce at least isolated severe gusts.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025

$$