936
ACUS02 KWNS 010604
SWODY2
SPC AC 010603

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains...
Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the
eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains,
with preceding height falls and a strengthening of
west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast
Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably
delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable
surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest
destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across
southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to
northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is
also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just
behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas.

Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially
intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all
hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri.
Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with
continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress
east-southeastward across the region.

...Central/South-central High Plains...
Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far
southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and
deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma
Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across
east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas.

...Southeast/Gulf Coast...
Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a
moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening
southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained
severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by
the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak
deep-layer shear.

..Guyer.. 07/01/2024

$$