856
ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas Monday. Severe storms are
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow is forecast over the CONUS Monday. An upper low
moving over the northern Gulf Coast and offshore will be the primary
feature of interest for convection, as broad-scale ridging persists
over the central US. Beneath the upper low, a surface cyclone is
forecast to steadily intensify as it moves offshore over southern
South Carolina early in the day. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move eastward over the lower FL Peninsula.

...Coastal Carolinas...
As the upper trough moves offshore, mid-level ascent will overspread
the strong coastal front over the eastern Carolinas. In response,
the initially broad surface low will deepen as it moves into the
Atlantic. Scattered convection is likely to be ongoing through the
morning within a broader area of precipitation, and should persist
through much of the day, as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of
the deepening coastal low. Weak elevated buoyancy and moderate to
strong mid-level flow could support a few stronger storms capable of
an isolated damaging gust or hail. However, the surface-based warm
sector should remain well offshore, keeping the probability for
severe storms low.

...Florida Peninsula...
Additional scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along and ahead
of the cold front over parts of the FL Peninsula early Monday. The
front is forecast to move quickly eastward, as moderately strong
deep-layer flow overspreads a narrow warm sector. The weakening
upper low moving offshore will favor warm midlevel temperatures,
resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy. Given
the relatively poor timing with the diurnal cycle, limited buoyancy
and modest front-parallel shear, severe potential is low. However, a
brief strong storm or two could produce damaging gusts across the
eastern FL coast. Here, more diurnal heating is possible before the
front moves offshore by early afternoon.

..Lyons.. 03/09/2025

$$