496
ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will meander over New England while upper ridging
prevails across the western and central U.S. tomorrow (Friday).
Surface high pressure will dominate the MS/OH Valley regions while a
lee surface trough encourages moisture return across the western
Gulf Coastal region into the southern and central High Plains.
Multiple weak mid-level perturbations will traverse the upper ridge,
serving as foci for thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Given a combination of at least marginal overlapping shear and
instability over the High Plains to the Sabine River Valley, a
couple of thunderstorms may approach severe limits.

...Sabine River Valley...
Multicellular convection, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
ongoing at the start of the period, and likely weakening through the
morning hours. This convection will leave behind an outflow boundary
that will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development as
the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Surface temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, with modest veering profiles contributing to 25 kts of
effective bulk shear. Multicells will redevelop off of the outflow
boundary, and will pose a risk for a couple of severe gusts by
afternoon peak heating.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Rockies by afternoon
peak heating, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms,
which will move off of the higher terrain over eastern CO/northeast
NM. These storms will mature in an environment characterized by
modest mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear, especially as
they approach the CO/NE/KS border by afternoon peak heating. MLCAPE
may exceed 2000 J/kg amid elongated hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. Both multicells and occasional supercells will
be the primary storm modes, accompanied by threats for isolated
severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

$$