584
ACUS02 KWNS 251730
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Southeast...
A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward
quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands
from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the
secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow
aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over
the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should
also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern
Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will
sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore
early Thursday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of
the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day`s convective
cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm
sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their
wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass
could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms
in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC
into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse
rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should
limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore
Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier
conditions.

...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts...
Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped
convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon.
However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite
limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still,
strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray
convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of
lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present.

..Lyons.. 11/25/2025

$$