147
ACUS02 KWNS 041647
SWODY2
SPC AC 041645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main
concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger
storms over the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains...
The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast
OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday.  As
this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern
MT/WY into the Dakotas.  Deep southeasterly low-level winds into
this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from
northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg.
Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms
spreading into the Dakotas by evening.  Supercells and bowing
structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

...Upper Midwest...
Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern
WY.  This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest
tomorrow.  A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into
central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered
thunderstorm development.  Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but
ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few
strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds.  A few of the 12z CAM
solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential
for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into
southwest WI.  Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an
upgrade in later outlooks.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across
much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS,
the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM.  Forecast soundings show steep
low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some
convective organization.  Multiple clusters of storms capable of
gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected.  Parts of this region
may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear.

..Hart.. 07/04/2025

$$