922
ACUS02 KWNS 181746
SWODY2
SPC AC 181745

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from
Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may
occur during the day across the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the
southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong
southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the
Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast.

At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states
southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New
England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front
during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but
strong mean wind environment.

The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow
band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection
with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms,
but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe
potential.

...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley...
Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and
extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e
advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of
this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall
it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time.

To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with
a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front.
This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX
through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into
the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of
west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the
remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated
hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong
deep-layer shear.

Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to
cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over
west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as
the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening.
Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and
central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the
shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected
with a linear storm mode.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2025

$$