529
ACUS02 KWNS 070647
SWODY2
SPC AC 070645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO
NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of central to north Texas.

...TX...
A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM
into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly
track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding.
A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into
central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially
across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return
north of the Red River.

Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across
parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could
accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau
vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be.
Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of
TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential
heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus
suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should
occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could
foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35
corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE
is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support
potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary
threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does
differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes
east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a
greater severe threat may be.

Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak
surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during
the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat
will likely diminish after sunset.

..Grams.. 11/07/2024

$$