006
ACUS02 KWNS 301727
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the
northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota.
Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains
on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the
southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the
northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the
central Plains.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains
as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push
into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front
lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of
higher dewpoints will exist.

...Central and northern Plains...
Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE
within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken
as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F
dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while
strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE.
Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms
likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail
initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds
increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or
two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface
prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm
front will be favorable.

To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be
strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms
forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper
midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well
developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb
will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into
southwest MN and western IA.

..Jewell.. 06/30/2024

$$