745
ACUS02 KWNS 241708
SWODY2
SPC AC 241706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of
south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for
severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across
much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative
ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in
mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward
the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain
over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over
the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold
front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest
TX.

...Southern AZ...
With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds
will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light
westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as
heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place,
and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon.

Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and
perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with
steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions.
With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe
gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed
air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening.

..Jewell.. 08/24/2025

$$