137
FNUS22 KWNS 081933
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...

The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical
risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border.
Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds
Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday.
Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions
is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity
of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An
easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated
elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the
San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning
hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a
sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15%
to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire
weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined
in the previous discussion below.

..Moore.. 01/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated,
stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet
will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday
morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great
Basin.

...Southern California...
The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately
strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be
moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through
the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually
increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical
fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is
expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los
Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated
fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward
into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though
single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be
possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds
are more likely outside of those areas.

...Central/South Florida...
Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on
Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are
expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are
expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$