618
FNUS22 KWNS 161832
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

The primary adjustment for this forecast update was an expansion of
the Elevated risk area into parts of western TX and eastern AZ.
Recent guidance shows relatively good agreement in widespread 15-25
mph winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains.
Given antecedent dry conditions (17 UTC relative humidity values in
the single digits to low teens with no appreciable moisture recovery
anticipated), widespread elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated. Expansion of the Critical risk area was
considered for parts of west/southwest TX, but ERC values remain
near to just below seasonal values. One and ten-hour fuel moisture
values below 10% suggest that the fire threat will primarily be
driven by dead dry grasses, but ongoing green up should also limit
fire spread potential to some degree, especially with east and
northward extent. Consequently, only elevated highlights appear
warranted. Similarly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
are expected along the Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ where ERCs are
generally near seasonal levels, but some fire activity within the
past week suggests that at least elevated highlights are needed.

..Moore.. 05/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by a 60-kt southwesterly
speed maximum, will advance northeastward from northern MX across
southern NM during the afternoon. In response, a weak lee
cyclone/trough will deepen over the southern High Plains.

...Southern New Mexico...
Along the northern periphery of mid/high-level clouds extending from
north-central MX into West TX, mostly clear skies and dry/downslope
trajectories will support deep boundary-layer mixing into the
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across southern NM. Additionally,
a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough will
contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts). These strong/gusty winds, combined with single-digit
RH and middle 80s F temperatures, will yield critical fire-weather
conditions atop increasingly receptive fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$