689
FNUS22 KWNS 170709
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
Dry thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin will be the primary
fire weather threat for Thursday, though localized wind-driven fire
weather concerns in the lee of the Cascades are possible.

...Great Basin...
A weak upper-level impulse is currently approaching the Pacific
Northwest per early-morning satellite imagery. This feature is
forecast to crest an upper ridge along the northern Rockies through
the day Thursday, leaving a trailing plume of monsoonal moisture in
its wake across the eastern Great Basin. Forcing for ascent
associated with the shortwave trough will become increasingly
displaced from the region through the day; however, orographic
ascent will likely support isolated thunderstorm development by late
afternoon across eastern NV into ID and UT. PWAT values in the 0.4
to 0.7 inch range and nearly 3 km deep boundary layers suggest that
thunderstorms should mostly be dry. Increasing PWAT values with
eastward and southward extent should yield higher probabilities for
wetting rainfall across the Four Corners and central Rockies. Areas
that do not receive rainfall over the next 24 hours (which should be
spatially limited) should have receptive fuels support lightning
starts.

...Cascades...
Low to mid-level winds are forecast to become more
west/southwesterly in the wake of the upper disturbance. As this
occurs, downslope and gap winds are forecast to strengthen with most
solutions indicating that 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph)
will be possible for wind-prone locations in the immediate lee of
the Cascades. With little rainfall expected from dry thunderstorms
over the next 24 hours and antecedent dry fuels already in place,
localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated. Based on
latest high-res deterministic and ensemble guidance, this potential
appears to be fairly spatially limited to the Columbia Gorge and far
south-central OR in the lee of the Fremont Mountains, precluding a
broader risk area at this time.

..Moore.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$