071
FNUS22 KWNS 271904
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

The previous forecast reasoning remains largely valid. Minor changes
were made to the Southwest/southern High Plains Elevated area to
account for recent guidance. Within the Blue Ridge Vicinity, dry and
occasionally breezy conditions are possible. Sustained winds still
appear too light for highlights, however. Elsewhere, changes are as
follows:

...Central Plains...
An Elevated area was added to portions of central Nebraska into
southeastern South Dakota. The expectation is for RH to fall to
around 20% behind the surface trough where downsloping will occur.
Duration will be the main uncertainty, but enough of the region
should see Elevated conditions for a few hours tomorrow afternoon.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
Wind speeds will be slightly higher than on Thursday while RH will
probably be similar. Winds of 10-15 mph over very dry fuels will
support an Elevated fire weather threat along the western coast.

..Wendt.. 03/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/

...Synopsis...
As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad
troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the
Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and
west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk.

...Southern High Plains...
As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow
aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually
spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures
will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon.
Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough,
westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry
fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX
during peak heating.

...Central Plains...
Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains
Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture
arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below
30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$