379
FNUS22 KWNS 011839
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING...

An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the
mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding
wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front.
Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and
should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained
winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated
fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was
considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the
post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance
shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of
the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will
continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed.

..Moore.. 10/01/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/

...Synopsis...
An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on
Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains
with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday
night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are
expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest.
However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no
Elevated area is justified in this region.

An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40%
outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow
strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger
flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also
expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the
upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been
added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are
expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$