966
FNUS22 KWNS 092001
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

There were two additions made with this update:

1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains,
where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45
mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front.
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating
that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap
15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a
west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid
increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices,
fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire
spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind
shift, the Critical highlights are warranted.

2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the
central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights
where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where
relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks,
which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns --
given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough
during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow
areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights
at this time.

For additional details, see the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 03/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/

...Synopsis...
Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great
Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical
meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and
poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the
areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated
highlights in the forecast.

...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota...
At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the
Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold
front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%.
Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but
given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry
conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some
wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher
winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values.
Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been
introduced at this time.

...Western Nebraska...
Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed
Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity
values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions
have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas
central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC
fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights
at this time.

...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather
criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit
the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$