836
FNUS22 KWNS 100635
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the
Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry
thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western
NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is
forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late
Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the
eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker
low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep
mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across
northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low
teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor
deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded
introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along
the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass
will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given
recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic
environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained
and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features.

..Moore.. 08/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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