310
ACUS01 KWNS 061241
SWODY1
SPC AC 061239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN
GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across
parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern
Virginia.

...Synopsis...
Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains
southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded
within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward
through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther
west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest
low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward
through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low,
extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of
thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous
line from south-central MS into northeast AL.

The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward
throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark
Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making
farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low
is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold
front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the
day.

...Southeast...
The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in
the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm
throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place
should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as
it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will
be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the
boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain
convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear
convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow
is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as
well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough
low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind
damage and tornadoes.

As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning)
increase in convective organization is possible, due to a
persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low.
This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential
for strong gusts and/or tornadoes.

...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont...
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the
morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given
the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms
may produce wind damage.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025

$$