Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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701 ACUS01 KWNS 060043 SWODY1 SPC AC 060041 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan... A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border -- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time, and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest through the overnight hours. Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms, and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable, suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur -- particularly if an organized cold pool can develop. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130. ..Goss.. 10/06/2024 $$