703
ACUS01 KWNS 100532
SWODY1
SPC AC 100531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A
few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with
the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper
trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will
move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls
over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft
will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will
spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper
ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a
strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives
southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with
relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf
Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast
early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then
reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday.

...Northern Gulf Coastal Region...
Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in
warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS
eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the
Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and
presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal
destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models
indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated
MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit
destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be
possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast,
and northward in the warm advection regime.

Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear,
gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur.
However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough
to introduce any risk areas.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025

$$