645
ACUS01 KWNS 101950
SWODY1
SPC AC 101949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River
Valley vicinity the remainder of this afternoon into the evening.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Mid-level
moisture will continue to advect across northern Mexico and the
Southwest through tonight. Modest heating and destabilization should
support a couple of stronger storms across NV, northwest AZ and
western UT. On the fringes of strong southwesterly flow aloft,
transient storm organization is possible with the strongest cells
capable of damaging gusts. Otherwise, minor edits were made to the
thunder line. See the previous discussion below.

..Lyons.. 10/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin...
Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the
West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward
the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present
across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this
moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization
should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of
residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into
southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing
mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may
support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of
transient supercells.

$$