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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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356 ACUS01 KWNS 010601 SWODY1 SPC AC 010559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 $$