861
ACUS01 KWNS 091949
SWODY1
SPC AC 091948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and
tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern
Alabama/Georgia.

...20z Update...
The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor
adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the
Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in
intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including
splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These
convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that
depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile
over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible
through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern
GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional
details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in
coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the
western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat
marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing
with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment
coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe
convection as storms move ashore early Monday.

..Moore.. 03/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/

...Southeast...
A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over
the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A
related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this
morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf
Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over
northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing
across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is
occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While
strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this
convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a
marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates
and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist
with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of
southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a
little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple
supercells that may develop later this afternoon.

Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate
along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While
lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent,
gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating
should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon.
Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based
thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through
tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with
the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across
the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end
of the period.

$$