783
ACUS01 KWNS 070543
SWODY1
SPC AC 070542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening/tonight across
parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps
a tornado or two are all possible.

...West Texas...

Strong upper low is digging southeast across the Four Corners
region, in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
advance across the southern Rockies during the day1 period, finally
approaching the southern High Plains by 08/12z. This eastward
ejection is due to an 80+kt 500mb speed max that will translate
through the base of the trough into far west TX by sunrise. As the
upper trough settles into the southern Rockies, cold boundary-layer
air will surge south across the High Plains. Currently, at 05z, a
sharp cold front extends from southwest KS-LBB-HOB-ROW. This
boundary will likely surge a bit south of 00z model guidance as its
current position is well ahead of forecast position. LLJ will
increase atop this boundary and low-level warm advection is expected
to lead to scattered convection, as elevated buoyancy should be more
than adequate for deep updrafts. Models do not exhibit strong
instability across the warm sector, but surface-based parcels do
become weakly inhibited by late afternoon, and SBCAPE could exceed
1000 J/kg across the Edwards Plateau into far west TX, south of the
wind shift. Forecast soundings favor supercells, but forcing will be
limited until the latter half of the period. While scattered
warm-advection storms may materialize during the day, the primary
concern will be later in the evening and overnight as large-scale
forcing increases ahead of the ejecting trough. Widespread
convection is expected to develop across the southern High Plains
and expand in areal coverage, modulated by a strengthening LLJ by
06z. Hail may be the primary concern, along with some wind gusts.
However, any surface-based storms will be adequately sheared for
some risk of tornadoes. An extensive convective/precip event should
materialize during the overnight hours across west TX into western
OK which will likely influence convective mode.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/07/2024

$$