Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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390 ACUS01 KWNS 150527 SWODY1 SPC AC 150525 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 $$