Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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043 ACUS01 KWNS 061246 SWODY1 SPC AC 061245 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A vigorous upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue advancing eastward across parts of Quebec and the Northeast today. A related surface low over northern Ontario this morning will slowly occlude through the day, while a cold front extending across the upper Great Lakes and Midwest advances southeastward over the OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic by this evening. A narrow corridor of modest low-level moisture will return northward ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading the warm sector through the day, in tandem with diurnal heating, should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. A belt of enhanced (50-60 kt) mid-level flow attendant to the upper trough will move over parts of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and western Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. This strong flow aloft will contribute to substantial deep-layer shear (around 35-50 kt) and organized severe convection. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the cold front in eastern OH/western NY and northwest PA around 20-22Z. This initial development may be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a fairly quick transition to a line is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/06/2024 $$