441
ACUS01 KWNS 131546
SWODY1
SPC AC 131545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
COASTAL CALIFORNIA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur this afternoon
and evening over parts of central and southeastern Arizona.  Locally
damaging winds appear possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...AZ...
An upper low currently centered along the OR coast will dig
southward through the forecast period.  This will maintain deep
southwesterly flow throughout the Southwest US and Great Basin.
Considerable mid-level moisture and marginal CAPE values will
promote a risk of scattered thunderstorms across these areas through
tonight.  While an isolated strong storm will be possible over a
broad region, parts of the central and southeast AZ appear to have
the best combination of daytime heating, orographic ascent, and
vertical shear to promote a risk of a few strong/severe storms
capable of hail and gusty winds.

...Coastal CA...
A strong mid-level jet max will rotate inland tonight into parts of
south-central coastal CA, along with an associated surface cold
front.  Forecast soundings along/ahead of the front show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of a few low-topped but strong
storms capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado.  The
main concerns will be after midnight.

..Hart/Moore.. 10/13/2025

$$