Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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446 ACUS01 KWNS 010106 SWODY1 SPC AC 010105 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic... Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible into at least the mid evening. ...Montana/western North Dakota... A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies. Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity, however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage, remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe winds are possible with this activity. ...Arizona... Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has likely aided in convective development and modest organization this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible. Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where temperatures remain in the low 100s F. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2024 $$