


Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
932 FNUS21 KWNS 181610 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today`s fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$