932
FNUS21 KWNS 181610
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are
expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as
relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern
California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water
value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at
Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with
ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the
scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat
limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at
least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of
the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm
cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50
mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across
portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho,
western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC
Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather
potential in this area.

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible
this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and
central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this
area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble
forecast guidance.

Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
today`s fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 07/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/

...Synopsis...
Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS
with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier
states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in
southern California/northern Baja.

...Northwest...
Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade
gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface
winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally
critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds
will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical
levels.

...Northern Great Basin...
Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low
in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the
northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a
combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak
mid/upper-level flow.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$