377
FNUS21 KWNS 161528
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. 15
UTC surface observations show 20-30 mph winds just ahead and behind
a cold front pushing southeast across the Plains. Recent guidance
continues to suggest localized elevated conditions are likely across
eastern IA into western IL this afternoon (as outlined by the
previous discussion below). More widespread elevated fire weather
conditions are probable across KS and parts of the southern High
Plains where RH in the 20-30% range and 15-25 mph winds are likely;
however, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near/below
the 50th percentile (which is supported by a lack of large fire
activity in recent days and regional web cams that show extensive
green up across KS), which should modulate the overall fire weather
threat.

..Moore.. 05/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/

...Synopsis...
Within the base of a deep mid/upper-level low moving across the
Upper MS Valley, a 70-kt southwesterly speed maximum will emerge
over the Midwest during the afternoon. Beneath the core of the
midlevel jet, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
parts of northern IL -- where diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent
air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced
flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will climb into the 80s F,
while RH falls to around 25-30 percent. These warm/dry conditions,
combined with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts), will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over
areas that missed out on precipitation over the past 24 hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$