422
FNUS21 KWNS 170616
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
Dry thunderstorms remain the primary fire weather concern across the
Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin for today as a weak
upper disturbance overspreads the northwest CONUS. A persistent
upper ridge over the Four Corners will continue to limit surface
pressure-gradient winds, resulting in limited potential for
wind-driven fire weather concerns.

...Pacific Northwest...
As of 05 UTC, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are going across
portions of CA, NV, and OR. This convection is mainly focused within
a plume of monsoonal moisture between 700-500 mb that is evident in
satellite imagery spreading north into the Pacific Northwest ahead
of the upper wave. The 00 UTC OTX RAOB shows signs of this
moistening trend compared to the previous 12 UTC sounding, and
features steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. A combination of
increasing moisture, steep lapse rates, and focused ascent should
maintain the thunderstorm threat from the start of the period
through late afternoon across the Pacific Northwest. Fuels across
the Pacific Northwest will likely support lightning starts given
negligible rainfall over the past 7 days and persistent warm/dry
conditions.

Portions of south-central OR may see localized elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Ensemble guidance shows potential for
sustained winds near 15 mph as RH falls into the single digits and
low teens. However, typically drier deterministic solutions suggest
these conditions should remain fairly localized and transient.

...Great Basin...
Lift associated with the shortwave will be weaker to the southeast
across the Great Basin, but orographic ascent within an uninhibited
air mass should yield isolated thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance
shows low probability (less than 30%) for wetting rainfall. While
storm coverage is likely contributing to this low probability,
forecast soundings show PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inch, which
further suggests predominantly dry thunderstorms. Fuel guidance
indicates that fuels generally remain receptive away from isolated
pockets of wetting rainfall over the past 72 hours.

..Moore.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$