140
FNUS21 KWNS 011523
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...

The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations
showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western
ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend
will continue as the low deepens further across the southern
Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical
risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent
12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb
winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface
gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously
anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak
heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just
above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather
conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed
out. See the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/01/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/

...Synopsis...
A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern
across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day
today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen
across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds
across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska
Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph
sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry
fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the
Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible
across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to
be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet
Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and
thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat.

An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across
southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with
single digit relative humidity.

Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting
Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and
southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough
to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or
Critical areas are warranted.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$