558
FNUS21 KWNS 111625
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm area across Arizona in alignment with trends in
recent guidance. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 08/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/

...Synopsis...
Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the
Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist
across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH
minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are
expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a
surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west.
Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by
15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing
will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions
remains too limited to warrant highlights.

Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry
thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and
MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy
precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple
dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts
were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar
thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will
likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms.
Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited
due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$